Western Hudson Bay freeze-up earlier than average for 1980s for the third year in a row

Yep, a sure sign of global warming, an early freeze up. 

Reposted from Polar Bear Science.

This is the third year in a row that freeze-up of Western Hudson Bay (WH) ice has come earlier than the average of 16 November documented in the 1980s. Reports by folks on the ground near Churchill confirm polar bears are starting to move onto the sea ice that’s developing along the shore after almost 5 months on land. After five good sea ice seasons in a row for WH polar bears, this repeat of an early freeze-up means a sixth good ice season is now possible for 2019-2020.

Sadly for the tourists, however, it means the polar bear viewing season in Churchill will be ending early this year, just like it did last year and the year before.

Churchill pbs checking the ice 10 Nov 2019 Amanda Atarling photo

When mothers with cubs are out on the ice (see photo above), it’s pretty certain the mass movement from land to sea ice is well underway because these family units are usually the last to leave.

CURRENT ICE CONDITIONS

Weather in Churchill was very cold today, -36C with the wind chill. The slight moderation in temperature in the forecast for the rest of this week is still very conducive to ice formation:

Churchill weather 11 Nov 2019 at 12 pm_EC

The Canadian Ice Service charts for 10 November 2018 below (the overall picture and the details for ice development in northern Hudson Bay) show the ice conditions last year at the time that bears left for the ice:

Sea ice Canada 2018 Nov 10

Hudson Bay North ice stage of development 2018 Nov 10 from archive

Below is what the ice looks like this year (11 November 2019): while the band of ice is not quite as thick as last year at this time, recent cold weather has led to solid ice formation along the west coast of Hudson Bay and into James Bay (home to Southern Hudson Bay bears). This ice is guaranteed to widen and thicken over the next few days, putting this year only a day or two behind last year and 2017.Canada sea ice extent 2019 Nov 11

Hudson Bay North ice stage of development 2019 Nov 10

Just to round out the comparison, below is the detailed ice development chart for 11 November 2017:

Hudson Bay North ice stage of development 2017 Nov 11 from archive

FREEZE-UP DATES SINCE 1979

Like Andrew Derocher’s student Laura Castro de la Guardia, I am using a definition of “freeze-up” that describes the behaviour of polar bears to newly formed ice, not the date when fall ice coverage on the bay reaches 50% (e.g. Lunn et al. 2016).

According to a recalculation of WH data that goes up to 2015 and back to 1979 (Castro de la Guardia 2017, see graph below), in the 1980s bears left for the ice at freeze-up (10% sea ice coverage) about 16 November ± 5 days while in recent years (2004-2008) they left about 24 November ± 8 days, a difference of 8 days. In other words, the relative change in the dates that WH bears left the shore between the 1980s and recent years is only about 1 week (with lots of variation).

castro-de-la-guardia-et-al-derocher-2017-fig-3-no-caption

Therefore, freeze-up dates of 10-12 November or so (Day 314-316) for 2017, 2018, and 2019 are some of the earliest freeze-up dates recorded since 1979 (the earliest being 6 November, Day 310, in 1991 and 1993), even earlier than the average for the 1980s.

Virtually all Western Hudson Bay bears leave the shore within about 2 days of sea ice concentration reaching 10% (Castro de la Guardia 2017; Cherry et al. 2013), although Southern Hudson Bay bears leave when it reaches about 5%: in other words, the bears go as soon as they possibly can.

As I discussed in 2016 regarding newly-published studies (Obbard et al. 2015, 2016) on the status of Southern Hudson Bay (SH) bears:

“…SH polar bears left the ice (or returned to it) when the average ice cover near the coast was about 5%. This finding is yet more evidence that the meteorological definition of “breakup” (date of 50% ice cover) used by many researchers (see discussion here) is not appropriate for describing the seasonal movements of polar bears on and off shore.”

Here is the week 19 report from the 2018 Churchill Polar Bear Alert Program (November 4-11 — almost 5 months ashore), confirming that bears were moving onto the rapidly forming ice by the first week of November last year:

churchill-problem-bears_week-19_2018-nov-5-11.jpg

For 2019, the town of Churchill is behind in their posting of problem bear reports (the last one listed is 28 October) but I’ll insert the relevant status sheets for the season’s end here as soon as they are available.

My 2017 Southern Hudson Bay post (with its list of references) is worth another look for its discussion of the following points: the definition of freeze-up; the relationship of official freeze-up and breakup dates to the dates that bears depart; the overall health and survival of Western and Southern Hudson Bay polar bears.

A final note: if PBI spokesperson Amstrup had been right about his predictions of Arctic sea ice and polar bear survival back in 2007 when he was the head of the US Geological Survey’s polar bear research team, there would be no polar bears at all in Hudson Bay right now (Crockford 2017, 2019), not a thriving population of fat, healthy bears moving offshore as early as bears did in the 1980s.

REFERENCES

Castro de la Guardia, L., Myers, P.G., Derocher, A.E., Lunn, N.J., Terwisscha van Scheltinga, A.D. 2017. Sea ice cycle in western Hudson Bay, Canada, from a polar bear perspective. Marine Ecology Progress Series 564: 225–233. http://www.int-res.com/abstracts/meps/v564/p225-233/

Cherry, S.G., Derocher, A.E., Thiemann, G.W., Lunn, N.J. 2013.Migration phenology and seasonal fidelity of an Arctic marine predator in relation to sea ice dynamics. Journal of Animal Ecology 82: 912-921. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1365-2656.12050/abstract

Crockford, S.J. 2017. Testing the hypothesis that routine sea ice coverage of 3-5 mkm2 results in a greater than 30% decline in population size of polar bears (Ursus maritimus). PeerJ Preprints 2 March  2017. Doi: 10.7287/peerj.preprints.2737v3 Open access. https://peerj.com/preprints/2737/

Crockford, S.J. 2019. The Polar Bear Catastrophe That Never Happened. Global Warming Policy Foundation, London. Available from Amazon in paperback and ebook formats.

Lunn, N.J., Servanty, S., Regehr, E.V., Converse, S.J., Richardson, E. and Stirling, I. 2016. Demography of an apex predator at the edge of its range – impacts of changing sea ice on polar bears in Hudson Bay. Ecological Applications 26(5): 1302-1320. DOI: 10.1890/15-1256

Obbard, M.E., Stapleton, S., Middel, K.R., Thibault, I., Brodeur, V. and Jutras, C. 2015. Estimating the abundance of the Southern Hudson Bay polar bear subpopulation with aerial surveys. Polar Biology 38:1713-1725.

Obbard, M.E., Cattet, M.R.I., Howe, E.J., Middel, K.R., Newton, E.J., Kolenosky, G.B., Abraham, K.F. and Greenwood, C.J. 2016.Trends in body condition in polar bears (Ursus maritimus) from the Southern Hudson Bay subpopulation in relation to changes in sea ice. Arctic Science 2: 15-32. DOI: 10.1139/AS-2015-0027

Posted in Uncategorized | 1 Comment

The ‘New Normal’ Is Not What You Think

My Other Voices Column: The ‘new normal’ is not what you think was published this AM [11-16-19] in The Union.

https://www.theunion.com/opinion/columns/russell-steele-the-new-normal-is-not-what-you-think/

Posted in Climate, Climate Change, Drought, NOAA, Weather | 2 Comments

Does one ten-thousandth of the atmosphere control Earth’s thermostat?

Reblogged from CFACT.  Slightly edited for better reading. 

By  |November 8th, 2019|Climate|237 Comments

There exists a belief that we are living in a world threatened by an important molecule that makes life possible on this planet’scarbon dioxide.

To save the earth many believe we must transform society by shutting down the use of oil and natural gas which has improved life of modern society.

The arguments in support of this belief are the math equations or climate models claimed to simulate how nature does control the Earth’s.

In consultation with Astrophysicist Willie Soon and Tom Wysmuller, formerly of NASAI chose the to consider following twelve variables which common sense says, must be considered when attempting to predict future temperatures and climate impacts on our planet. It turns out that all of these variables are not well understood, so if they appear at all, are just guesses. They include:

1- changes in seasonal solar irradiation

2- energy flows between the ocean and atmosphere

3- energy flows between the air and land

4- the balance between the Earth’s water, water vapor, and ice

5- the impact of clouds

6- understanding the planet’s ice

7- mass change among ice sheets, sea level, and glaciers

8- the ability to factor in hurricanes and tornadoes

9- the impact of vegetation on temperature

10- tectonic movement on the ocean floor

11- the differential rotation between the earth’s surface and the planet’s core

12- the solar system’s magnetic field and gravitational interaction

All of these factors that impact our climate are not well understood, requiring us to make educated guesses at how they relate to each other and our climate. More specifically, as to how they impact the Earth’temperature.

Governments have poured billions of dollars into the coffers of academic institutions churning out predictions from useless equations. More than 100 climate models are financed by the United States government, none of which agree with each other. None have accurately predicted anything as to our climate over the past 30 years.

It is no surprise that Willie Soon calculated a few years ago that if we actually knew all the variables involved in a reasonable mathematical climate model it would take a supercomputer 40 years to reach an answer to a question we posed.

In an appeal to our readers’ common sense we have constructed two accurate 10,000 dot charts. The first one below shows how much man-produced carbon dioxide exists in the atmosphere as a greenhouse gas relative to all such greenhouse gas in the atmosphere. The second chart shows how much carbon dioxide exists i n our atmosphere relative to all other gases in our atmosphere.Does one ten thousandth of the atmosphere control Earth's thermostat?

On the first chart you can see that while Carbon dioxide makes up 3.6% of all greenhouse gas, man’s contribution of CO2 from factories power plants and automobiles is only 0.12% of all greenhouse gas. On the second chart you can see that total carbon dioxide in the atmosphere makes up four ten thousands (.0004) of all atmospheric gases, but man’s contribution is only one ten thousandths (.0001).

We all know there is a cottage industry of folks building climate models which appear to be scaring the public to enlarge government to  save them from seeing their planet destroyed. There are however many sound scientists that recognize the absurd exaggeration of the impacts of carbon dioxide emissions on our planet. But they also work with mathematical models to show how tiny is the impact of carbon dioxide on our Earth. They are often called Luke-warmers. The problem is that by their professing carbon dioxide’s impact as being small they are giving the proverbial “inch” which allows the alarmists to take a “mile.

It is time that we all stop fighting alarmist numbers with our small numbers. The only number that matters is ZERO. That is, in fact, the real impact of carbon dioxide on the Earth’s thermostat and sea level rise. We are not in a battle over numbers. We are in a battle to protect our way of life. 

If we lose to the so-called Progressives, who should really be called Regressives, they will take us back to life as it was in the 19th century, but much worse, as they will have installed a government capable of controlling every aspect of our lives.

On the first chart you can see that while Carbon dioxide makes up 3.6% of all greenhouse gas, man’s contribution of CO2 from factories power plants and automobiles is only 0.12% of all greenhouse gas. On the second chart, you can see that total carbon dioxide in the atmosphere makes up four ten thousand (.0004) of all atmospheric gases, but man’s contribution is only one ten thousandths (.0001).

Does one ten thousandth of the atmosphere control Earth's thermostat? 1

Author

  • Jay Lehr is a Senior Policy Analyst with the International Climate Science Coalition. He has authored more than 1,000 magazine and journal articles and 36 books.

Posted in Climate Change | 5 Comments

Cold October (and now November) in perspective

Reblogged from Icecap.us

By Joseph D’Aleo, CCM

Starting in January 2019, unusual and at times record cold has been locked in over the north central states.

image

Though there was heat in late summer in the southeast and eastern Gulf to the Mid-Atlantic, the cold held in the north central. After a very cold spring with late snows, which significantly delayed or prevented grain planting, a cool summer followed and gave way to a very early cold shot in late September that brought early deep freezes and even record snows in the north central leading to significant crop losses.

There have been 90 all-time record lows versus just 44 all-time record highs this year. That included the all time state record low of -38F in Mount Carroll in Illinois on January 31st.

The cold central deepened in October and pushed to the east bringing very early snow into the Midwest. October saw 3680 record daily lows, 32 all time record lows for the month and no all time record monthly highs (NOAA NCEI).

image

After bringing heavy snows to the Rockies and high plains the cold rolled south with temperatures 30 to 50 degrees below normal.

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Temperatures dropped to a record of -35F at Logan County Sink in Utah and -46F in Peter’s sink, record coldest for the U.S. for the month of October.

The temperatures the first 9 months have tracked the last 120 years well with multidecadal cycles in the ocean.

image

The cold also follows the solar activity. We are currently in a century or more quiet sun.  In the period in and following the last 11 year cycle low (2007-2011), we had brutal cold and snow here in the U.S. and Europe.

December in 2010, the Central England Temperature (longest continuous record going back to 1659), was the second coldest December.  Snow, which was forecast to be a thing of the past, instead buried the UK for long periods reminiscent of the Dalton solar Minimum of the early 1800s as evidenced by Dicken’s novels.

image

In the US, record cold and snow in the Snowmageddon Mid-Atlantic winter of 2009/10, was eclipsed with the record winters of 2013/14 and 2014/15. Which brought the coldest and snowiest winter and modern day peaks of Great Lake ice.

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The snow in the hemisphere is increasing very rapidly and is above normal, which should expand and enhance the cold. Note how the fall record for snow extent was at record levels last fall.

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Given the projection by Russian scientists and many in the west including some at NASA, we could be heading into a deep and long solar minimum like the Maunder Minimum with a major cooling. Whether it is a several decade Dalton like period or a Maunder, this is no time to abandon cheap, available energy.

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Even in the warmer interlude we have enjoyed, cold weather kills 20 times as many people as hot weather, according to an international study analyzing over 74 million deaths in 384 locations across 13 countries.

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Link

 

Posted in Climate, Climate Change, Weather | 5 Comments

Utah sees record cold of -43.6 ºF – ‘Perhaps the lowest October temperature ever recorded’ in the Continental U.S.

Meteorologist Paul Dorian:  “Perhaps the most amazing temperature recorded in this unusual cold spell for the western US took place earlier today in the remote observing station of Peter Sinks, Utah…the unofficial overnight low temperature thereof -43.6 ºF is pretty amazing for this time of year and perhaps the lowest temperature ever recorded in the Lower 48 during the month of October. Nearby Salt Lake City, Utah provided some supporting evidence of the extreme cold as it set a low-temperature record of 14 ºF for the date and records there go all the way back to 1874. 

sink

Posted in Analysis, Weather | 2 Comments

WSJ: Fires and Blackouts Made in Sacramento

 

Newsom tries to deflect blame, but PG&E is the agent of his policies.

After again shutting power to hundreds of thousands this week, California’s utility PG&E disclosed Thursday that it had discovered a broken jumper cable by the ignition site of a wildfire blazing across Sonoma County. The company has warned of more blackouts this weekend and perhaps for the next decade as it refurbishes its aging grid.

Gov. Gavin Newsom is trying to deflect political blame. “It’s about dog-eat-dog capitalism meeting climate change. It’s about corporate greed meeting climate change. It’s about decades of mismanagement,” Mr. Newsom declared. But Democrats for years have treated PG&E as their de facto political subsidiary. The wildfires and blackouts are the direct result of their mismanagement.

The state Public Utilities Commission is in charge of enforcing state safety laws and regulations, which can carry penalties of up to $50,000 per violation per day. Yet PG&E received no safety fines related to its power-grid management over the last several years. The commission has instead focused on enforcing the Legislature’s climate mandates.

State law mandates that utilities obtain 33% of electric generation from renewables such as wind and solar by 2020 and 60% by 2030. Utilities must spend hundreds of millions of dollars each year to reduce the cost of green energy for low-income households. PG&E has prioritized political obeisance over safety.

In 2018 PG&E spent $509 million on electric discounts for low-income customers in addition to $125 million for no-cost weatherization and efficiency upgrades for disadvantaged communities. Utilities also receive allowances from the state’s cap-and-trade program—$7.5 billion since 2012—to pay for other “ratepayer benefits” that reduce emissions.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/fires-and-blackouts-made-in-sacramento-11572044500

Posted in Climate, Climate Change, Uncategorized | 3 Comments

CA: No Global Warming Last 5 Years

The Climate Reference Network (CRN) was established by NOAA to provide climate measurements free from urban influences; thus, they are located in remote rural locations. Specific information is HERE. The data set used in this analysis came from this NOAA CRN website.

Here are two siting example:

Screen Shot 2019-08-17 at 9.42.40 AMScreen Shot 2019-08-17 at 9.45.09 AM

The CRN was established in 2004 to counter the urban influence that was distorting temperatures of the existing networks of weather stations. The CRN network has 143 stations in the United States, A station map is HERE. California hosts seven CRN sites, all located in remote areas well away for urban influences.

    • Bodega Bay
    • Redding
    • Merced
    • Santa Barbara
    • Yosemite
    • Fallbrook
    • Stovepipe Wells

A Sacramento TV station (CBS News) has been reporting on climate change impacts in California. These scary reports indicate temperatures are continuing to rise and will soon exceed the two degrees Celsius threshold established by the UN in the Paris Accord. How accurate are these news reports? Is California continuing to warm?

The most accurate source of surface measurement data is the CRN.  I downloaded the California CRN data set in Excel format. After cleaning up the data I loaded it into a Python program to visualize the data. Below are the results of my analysis.

Let’s start with Redding at the upper end of the Sacramento Valley, which shows slight warming after 2012.

Redding_l

Then I plotted just the last five years, and I cannot see any significant warming.

Redding_s

Next, let’s look at Bodega Bay, one of my favorite places to visit on the California Coast. The graphic shows some significant warming:

Bodega_Bay_l

But, what about the last five years at Bodega Bay? The graphic shows some significant cooling over the previous five years.

Bodega_Bay_s

Next up is Merced in the Central Valley. Use to live near Merced in the 1960s, and it was hot in the summer. Only a slight increase in temperature.

Merced_l

And, in the last five years not much warming if any at all:

Merced_s

Now to the Southern CA Coast at Santa Barbara where the CRN observed about two degrees of warming.

Santa_Barbara_l

That Santa Barbara warming declined by a degree in the last five years.

Santa_Barbara_s

How about in the mountains? The Yosemite CRN shows some warming over the last ten years.

Yosemite_l

No Yosemite warming in the last five years:

Yosomite_s

Fallbrook is in Southern California and has experience about one degree of warming in ten years.

Fallbrook_l

However, it has cooled in the last five years.

Falbrook_s

Finally, let’s check the warmest place in California Death Valley, Stovepipe Wells is only slight warming than ten years ago.

Stovepipe_Wells_l

And, in the last five years, only slight warming.

Stovepipe_Wells_s

In the previous five years, California has not had any significant warming or a slight cooling according to the Climate Reference Network.  It appears the local Sacramento TV stations are promoting a climate change agenda that cannot be supported by the facts. More fake news?

 

Posted in California, Climate Change, History, Local Media, Weather | 1 Comment