Winter is Coming

I was listening to Weather Bell’s Joe Bastardi this morning and he wants us, westerners, to know that winter was about to decent on us. Below is the chart for 11 to 16 days in the future. The period starts on the 16th of Jan to 1 Feb.

11-16 Day Model

Blue is 2-3 degrees below normal and green is 4 to 5 degrees below normal.

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A Dense Blob has Kept California Weather Dry.

By Dale Kasler and Ryan Sabalow writing in the Sac Bee.

A series of persistent high pressure systems over the Pacific factored heavily in the five-year drought that ended last spring. The latest high pressure system produced one of California’s driest Decembers on record, left the Sierra Nevada snowpack woefully thin and raised fears of a drier-than-average winter. Although the system appears to be fizzling out, allowing some precipitation to hit California this week and next, the outlook for the rest of winter remains uncertain.

Check out the video that accompanies this article.

http://www.sacbee.com/news/state/california/water-and-drought/article193293494.html#emlnl=Breaking_Newsletter

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Strange Clouds Are Circling Antarctica

NASA’s AIM spacecraft is monitoring a vast ring of noctilucent (night-shining) clouds circling Antarctica. These strange clouds, formed at the edge of space by ice-frosted specks of meteor smoke, may be linked through recently discovered teleconnections to cold weather patterns in the USA.

Polar Antarctica

Above: Looking down on Antarctica from a polar orbit, NASA’s AIM spacecraft is taking daily pictures of electric-blue noctilucent clouds ringing the frozen continent.

H/T to Spaceweather.com

 

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7 New (2017) Papers Forecast Global Cooling, Another Little Ice Age Will Begin Soon

Details at the Next Grand Minimum

 

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Global Warming Returns?

Record -36° in Minnesota…

NEW YEAR’S EVE IN NYC COLDEST IN HISTORY?

Temps 30° BELOW normal…

Some of most extreme cold ‘ever observed’ in central Missouri…

Arctic Blast: Canada…

Siberia, Antarctica Warmer Than NH…

Frosty weather closes Maine ski areas…

‘Pancake ice’ on Lake Michigan…

UPDATE: Erie, PA pummeled by record 5 feet of snow…

NATIONAL GUARD MOBILIZED…

LIVE CHILL MAP…

http://www.drudgereport.com

Posted in Analysis, Weather | 1 Comment

Cosmic Rays, Solar Activity, Have Much Greater Impact On Earth’s Climate Than Models Suggest

Screenshot-2017-12-19-09.20.33

The local progressive challenge is always “was it Peer-Reviewed?” Yes, this paper was peer-reviewed.

Abstract:

Ions produced by cosmic rays have been thought to influence aerosols and clouds. In this study, the effect of ionization on the growth of aerosols into cloud condensation nuclei is investigated theoretically and experimentally. We show that the mass-flux of small ions can constitute an important addition to the growth caused by condensation of neutral molecules. Under atmospheric conditions, the growth from ions can constitute several percent of the neutral growth. We performed experimental studies which quantify the effect of ions on the growth of aerosols between nucleation and sizes >20 nm and find good agreement with theory. Ion-induced condensation should be of importance not just in Earth’s present day atmosphere for the growth of aerosols into cloud condensation nuclei under pristine marine conditions, but also under elevated atmospheric ionization caused by increased supernova activity.

The impact for climate modelers promoting anthropogenic global warming is that solar activity on Earth’s climate is up to seven times greater than the climate models suggest according to the cosmic ray/solar research published in Nature Communications and summarized by Graham Lloyd of the Australian, reprinted in the Global Warming Policy Forum:

He does not dispute that increased levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere have a warming impact on the climate.

But his findings present a challenge to estimates of how sensitive the climate is to changes in carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere.

Professor Svensmark says his latest findings were consistent both with the strong rise in the rate of global temperature change late last century and a slowdown in the rate of increase over the past 20 years.

‘’It gives a physical foundation to the large body of empirical evidence showing that solar activity is reflected in variations in Earth’s climate,” a media statement accompanying the scientific report said.

“For example, the Medieval Warm Period around year 1000AD and the cold period in the Little Ice Age 1300-1900 AD both fits changes in solar activity,” it said.

“Finally we have the last piece of the puzzle of why the particles from space are important for climate on Earth,” it said.

The study reveals how atmospheric ions, produced by the energetic cosmic rays raining down through the atmosphere, helps the growth and formation of cloud condensation nuclei — the seeds necessary for forming clouds in the atmosphere.

More cloud condensation nuclei mean more clouds and a colder climate, and vice versa.

“Since clouds are essential for the solar energy reaching the surface of the Earth the implications are huge for our understanding of why climate has varied in the past and also for a future climate changes,” the statement said.

Professor Svensmark said it had until now wrongly been assumed that small additional nucleated aerosols would not grow and become cloud condensation nuclei, since no mechanism was known to achieve this.

The research team tested its ideas experimentally in a large cloud chamber.

Data was taken over a period of two years with total 3100 hours of data sampling.

H/T to The American Thinker 

If this paper is correct we will be experiencing some global cooling over the next 20-30 years, and I hope finally driving a willow stake through the anthropogenic climate change myth. Stay Tuned.

Posted in Analysis, California, Climate Change, Solar | 1 Comment

New Normal is Just the Old Normal (Updated)

“Wildfires have been in the news almost every late summer and fall. Every year, the media blames ‘climate change.’ Governor Brown says these Raging Wildfires are “The New Normal,” for which he Blames Climate Change. ”

“The truth is the fires are normal and the damage done is greater because more people want to escape the urban areas and live in the hills among the trees. Ironically, government policies driven by extreme environmentalists like Governor Brown are making the fires worse.”

Robert Ingram wrote an article in the Union explaining the fire science of the LA wildfires. Details HERE

However, our local progressive do not agree, according to them, anthropogenic warming is responsible for the fires as Gov Brown claims. In a comment Steven Willer writes:

“Ingram is playing dumb or just ignorant of the fact with what global warming is doing, making weather patterns more exaggerated and prolonged.”

Here some facts the Willer nor Gov Brown wants to deal with. The number of fires and acreage affected since 1985 show the number of fires is down slightly through the acreage burned had increased before leveling off the last 20 years. The NWS tracks the number of days where conditions are conducive to wildfires when they issue red-flag warnings. It is little changed.

WILDFIRE_GRAPHS

 

Update 12-24-17: 1:30PM

In a comment on his blog, Jeff Pelline said: “A chart that goes back to the ’80s tells us nothing.”

Here is a chart of more history:

wildfires

What do you think? Is the “new normal” just like the old normal, from about 1950 forward when CO2 emissions stated to increase to create anthropogenic warming?  As you can see from the chart wildfire were much larger before CO2 increases.

H/T to Ice Cap for the intro and color graphics

H/T to Paul Homewood for the black and white graphics.

 

Posted in California, Climate Change, History, Human Behavior | 2 Comments