The California Department of Water Resources released a report on CA droughts on Monday. The Sac Bee has the story:
The study largely dovetails with previous estimates that the latest drought, which was declared over last spring by Gov. Jerry Brown, was historically significant. It also suggests that while lengthy dry spells in California are nothing new, two other prolonged droughts also stand out: one starting in 1452 and the other in 1775.
“Periods of widespread drought are evident throughout the past six centuries, but most events are limited to three or four years,” the report said. The tree-ring evidence indicates the latest drought was the “worst five-year drought in the past six centuries, as measured by the percent of average precipitation or streamflow.”
As we have pointed out in the graphics below, California has a history of droughts, which the DWR report supports. If the state has a history of droughts going back to 1400, and beyond. Why does Governor Brown continue to blame our current droughts on anthropogenic global warming?
I think the DWR report missed a few droughts in number and length.
Full Sac Bee Article is HERE.
From the California Weather Blog
The Sierra Nevada will be the biggest beneficiary–and may see 1-2+ feet of new snowfall from this storm (which means that the highest peaks could see as much as 3+ feet of pretty dry powder, derived from 1-3 inches of liquid equivalent, by the time all is said and done). There is still some inter-model disagreement between the GFS and ECMWF regarding how much rain makes it to SoCal with this second storm. Earlier solutions suggested the potential for a major rain event, but that now appears rather unlikely. Instead, I would expect to see some light-to-moderate accumulations over most of SoCal, but with some significant boom/bust potential. Why? This is not anticipated to be a particularly strong or moist system from a dynamical perspective; its greatest asset will be the very cold air aloft associated with it. Storms such as these sometimes “fizzle” south of Point Conception, and it’s possible that happens this week. Still, this will likely be the most significant precipitation event across most of the state over the past 6-7 weeks.
Joe Bastardi at Weather Bell is predicting this storm will be like March of 1962 on the East Coast. In Nevada City, in March 1962 the snowfall total was 6.5 inches.
The Local TV is over hyping this storm. As a Caltrans Transportation Engineer once said, “Local TV forecasters are known for their ability to turn a few random snowflakes into a raging blizzard, and the next time forecast a few raindrops when it is a real blizzard.”
♦ IPCC TAR (2001): “Milder winter temperatures will decrease heavy snowstorms”
♦ Kunkel et al., 2002: “Surface conditions favorable for heavy lake-effect snow decreased in frequency by 50% and 90% for the HadCM2 and CGCM1 [models], respectively, by the late 21st Century. This reduction [according to models] was due almost entirely to … an increase in average winter air temperatures.”
♦ IPCC AR4 (2007): “Snow season length and snow depth are very likely to decrease in most of North America”
♦ Kapnick and Delworth, 2013: “In response to idealized radiative forcing changes, both models produce similar global-scale responses in which global-mean temperature and total precipitation increase while snowfall decreases. … By using a simple multivariate model, temperature is shown to drive these trends by decreasing snowfall almost everywhere” (press release) “In North America, the greatest reductions in snowfall will occur along the northeast coast, in the mountainous west, and in the Pacific Northwest. Coastal regions from Virginia to Maine … will get less than half the amount of snow currently received.”
The reality: Blizzard activity jumps fourfold
For example a paper by Coleman and Schwartz, 2017 revealed 713 blizzards over the 55 years with 57 federal disaster declarations resulting. Of these 57 declared disasters, more than a half have occurred since the year 2000.
Finally, a study conducted by Hatchett et al., 2017 found a “winter snow level rise in the northern Sierra Nevada from 2008 to 2017”. Sea surface temperatures offshore California were observed to be related to snow cover.
Another AGW scary claim is disproven by the facts. Governor Brown Call Your Office.
H/T to No Tricks Zone.
This one is the for our local environmentalist, a remarkable personal story of how a Colorado environmentalist came to embrace the very thing she had been programmed to hate: oil and natural gas extraction.
A heartwarming story of a woman who changed her mind without changing her environmentalist values.
There is absolutely nothing unusual about today’s so-called global warming or if you prefer climate change.
Look at how many periods of warmth our planet has enjoyed during the past 10,000 years alone.
Civilizations flourished during those warm periods and collapsed when they ended.
- Did humans cause the Minoan warm period of about 3,300 years ago?
- Did humans cause the Roman warm period of about 2,100 years ago?
- Did humans cause the Medieval warm period of about 1,000 years ago?
- What about all of those other warm periods? Should we blame Fred Flintstone?
Now, look at where we are today at the far right side of the graph. Note how warm the past has been.
If the downward trend in temperature of the past 3,300 years continues, we could be in a heap of trouble. While our leaders keep on wringing their collective hands over global warming, we could be blindsided by an ice age.
All the lefty talk about human-caused global warming is sheer nonsense. The record shows that both periods of warmth – and periods of cold – hit our planet with almost consistent regularity.
The above chart is based on data from GISP2 (Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2). GISP2 drilled cores into the Greenland ice more than 3000 meters (almost 2 miles) deep, allowing scientists to study climate variability for the past 125,000 years.
H/T to Ice Age Now for the information.
Early in my blogging on global warming and then climate change the lefty anthropogenic warmers insisted that we have never experienced this range of temperature before. My position was that the Medieval Warming Period temperature was on par with or warmer than the current global temperatures. The anthropogenic warmers positions were that the MPW was just a regional anomaly, it was not global, therefore was not reliant to the global temperature discussion. About ten years have passed and over a 1,000 studies now validate the global reach of the MPW.
Climate reconstructions of the ‘Medieval Warm Period’ 1000-1200 AD. Legend: MWP was warm (red), cold (blue), dry (yellow), wet
It appears that the lefty anthropogenic warmers were wrong. AGW was global and calls into question the argument we are experiencing unusual warming over the last 20 years. We are not, it has happened before and will happen again. There is nothing unusual about the current warming, thus casting doubt on anthropogenic warming.