Yes Virginia (and everyone else) there is an El Niño coming

I wrote this earlier this month:

Many Sierra foothill folks were hoping for a 2014 El Niño to help fill our water storage facilities and restore the states ground water.  It does not look like it is going to happen, thus we need to address California’s on going drought.


Joe Bastardi has different point of view. He thinks we will have a modest El Niño, which could help fill our water collection systems, and reduce the threat of drought.  As I said before,  Stay Tuned.

Watts Up With That?

Guest essay by Joe Bastardi

I am a bit surprised at some of the waffling in the meteorological community on the ENSO event ( then again, maybe it is I who will be surprised).  Its evolving . I stated on our site at the start of the month to get ready for the drop in the SOI  that would allow the warmer sub surface water to come up and its like clockwork, its coming. Look at the SOI this month, and notice how over the last 15 days, alot of double digit negatives have shown up  after a period that was basically a wash. I don’t know why there is all the hand wringing with this event.

The JAMSTEC el nino index has had this nailed from the get go. The  REASON IT IS CALLED EL NINO  is in many cases its effects mature late in the year, and…

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About Russ Steele

Freelance writer and climate change blogger. Russ spent twenty years in the Air Force as a navigator specializing in electronics warfare and digital systems. After his service he was employed for sixteen years as concept developer for TRW, an aerospace and automotive company, and then was CEO of a non-profit Internet provider for 18 months. Russ's articles have appeared in Comstock's Business, Capitol Journal, Trailer Life, Monitoring Times, and Idaho Magazine.
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2 Responses to Yes Virginia (and everyone else) there is an El Niño coming

  1. gjrebane says:

    Russ, Bastardi’s first figure presents his strongest argument for the coming El Niño. Yet a quick look at the Xs showing the El Niños and then reading the Bastardi’s text reveals that these are only the cherry picked Xs – more of them could have been inserted on the chart into the intervals of the 11-year or so sunspot cycles. So what he has done is simply highlight the ones that are most conveniently located to support his argument.

    Second, since we apparently are now at the high point of the current sunspot cycle, does not his next red X get placed a few years in the future when the new inter-cycle low is reached? Therefore, how does this data support the assertion that “there is an El Niño coming” this season? I’m confused.

    If Bastardi feel that the overall macro-process of sunspot cycles to global weather effects continues, then perhaps a more powerful argument for having an El Niño this season would have been deduced from an arrival rate analysis. In that the El Niño arrivals would have been fit to say a Poisson or Weibull distribution, and then that used to give the correct probabilistic estimate of having such a global weather event this season.


    • Russ Steele says:


      I agree, Joe just confused the issue with his Xs, as one commenter noted, one has to put all the El Niño’s on the chart. His best argument is the changing wind patterns and upwelling warmer water. I listened to Joe’s Sat update video this morning and came away more confused than when he started. He may be slipping.


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