I was listening Weather Bell’s Joe Bastardi’s Saturday Update and he mention that the El Niño is real and strengthing. This is supported by the weather lab at Stanford:
The meteorological community is currently abuzz with discussion of what now appears to be a rapidly intensifying El Niño event in the tropical Pacific Ocean. For the past 12-14 months, the North Pacific Basin has been quite warm overall, with warmth primarily being concentrated near the equator in the West Pacific and in the extratropics in the East Pacific (including along the West Coast of North America).
While this will not have much impact on the drought over the summer, in fact it may be warmer than average with the warm water off the coast, however it does indicate we could have a very moist fall/winters season. Again the weather lab at Stanford:
A strong East Pacific El Niño event would likely strengthen the subtropical branch of the jet stream just west of California during the canonical wet season. This would direct the storm track squarely into Central and Southern California, most likely leading to above-normal precipitation in these regions (and perhaps in far Northern California, as well). In addition, the occurrence of individual high-intensity storms and rainfall events would probably be higher than during a typical winter due to the proximity of the storm track to California. Thus, the risk of flooding may be higher during such an El Niño event, especially in Southern California.
It would be wise to keep an eye on our growing pacific El Niño. NOAA thinks it could be come a super El Niño, but Joe Bastardi is betting on an average event. Stay Tuned, we will bring you the results.
The question is, how full will our storage facilities have to be before the Governor removes his water restrictions? Will one flood to the job?