California Drought Report #58: El Nino collapse appears to be underway


Details here:

As you can see from the chart below, La Niñas follow El Niños. Joe Bastardi, Weather Bell, is predicting that the fall will be rapid and will go deaper than some of the past La Niña events. Only time will tell, but it is clear there is more drought in our future. Save all the water you can.

El Ninio Graphic

Paul Dorian, Vencore Weather, 5 February 2016:

The collapse of El Nino in the tropical Pacific Ocean has begun and it will be rather dramatic. The current strong El Nino event reached its peak intensity level in December 2015 and all indications suggest it will completely flip to La Nina conditions by later this year. One of the important consequences of the current strong El Nino event in the equatorial Pacific Ocean was a spike in global temperatures. However, if recent history is any guide, expect global temperatures to drop sharply after La Nina conditions become well-established in the tropical Pacific Ocean – likely during 2017 and perhaps beyond.

The combination of La Niña conditions and the return of a negative (cool) Pacific Decadal Oscillation has historically produced wide spread drought through out the southwest, including California. This chart from Chapter 4, Page 54, in The West Without Water tells the story graphically.

West With Out Water page 54

As the El Niño fades the PDO will turn negative again, La Niña conditions will emerge and California will return to drought conditions. A condition that could last for 6-10 years before an El Niño pop up to break the extended drought. Citizens will be wise to save as much water as they can, the next drought will most likely be longer than the four year drought we just pass through.

About Russ Steele

Freelance writer and climate change blogger. Russ spent twenty years in the Air Force as a navigator specializing in electronics warfare and digital systems. After his service he was employed for sixteen years as concept developer for TRW, an aerospace and automotive company, and then was CEO of a non-profit Internet provider for 18 months. Russ's articles have appeared in Comstock's Business, Capitol Journal, Trailer Life, Monitoring Times, and Idaho Magazine.
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