Joe Bastardi at WeatherBELL Analytics is predicting we will have a winter much like 1981-82. The Pacific water temperatures this winter looks very much like the same pattern in 1981-82. If his analog forecast holds up, Nevada County could expect a wet winter.
The Oct 1981 through April 1982 precipitation was 92.1 inches that winter. They yearly average 55.6. That is about 36 inches above normal.
According to a recent story in the Sac Bee, the National Weather Service declared this year to be the wettest start of the 2016-17 water year in 30 years.
Citing state data from a string of eight gauges scattered around the northern Sierra, the service said precipitation has come in at about twice the average for this time of year, making for the wettest kickoff to the water year in 30 years. The water year, as defined by climatologists and others, begins Oct. 1.
The winter of 1981-82 was a little over 30 years ago. Joe could be right; we are in for a wet year.