Top-tier video game developers, your so-called Triple-A shops, aren’t wasting their time on creating the next GTA V or Mass Effect for Oculus Rift, the virtual reality headset start-up owned by Facebook. The customer pool isn’t deep enough to make such ambitious projects profitable yet, even though the technology exists. There’s no doubt that Oculus is impressive, but not enough people have it because there aren’t enough games. For there to be high-quality video games, there first needs to be widespread adoption of the technology — but it won’t be widely adopted until there’s high-quality content.
It’s a “chicken and egg” problem, Facebook founder and CEO Mark Zuckerberg says.
On Wednesday, Zuckerberg told investment analysts during the company’s fourth-quarter earnings call that he doesn’t see Oculus Rift hitting iPhone-levels of adoption for at least a decade.
“I just think it’s going to be a ten-year thing,” he said on the call, noting it took “ten years to get to 1 billion units” for smartphones, after they were introduced in 2003. “I don’t think that there is really a strategy to pull this in from ten years to five,” he said of creating a VR content ecosystem.
Facebook has the resources to survive the long game, but does the Green Screen Institute? A decade is a long time to survive on government grants, although the climate change scare industry has survived on government grants for over a decade by avoiding or twisting the facts. I doubt the same will be true for the GSI.