Much-needed Sierra Nevada snowfall on the way! But a Miracle March? Not so fast.

From the California Weather Blog

The Sierra Nevada will be the biggest beneficiary–and may see 1-2+ feet of new snowfall from this storm (which means that the highest peaks could see as much as 3+ feet of pretty dry powder, derived from 1-3 inches of liquid equivalent, by the time all is said and done). There is still some inter-model disagreement between the GFS and ECMWF regarding how much rain makes it to SoCal with this second storm. Earlier solutions suggested the potential for a major rain event, but that now appears rather unlikely. Instead, I would expect to see some light-to-moderate accumulations over most of SoCal, but with some significant boom/bust potential. Why? This is not anticipated to be a particularly strong or moist system from a dynamical perspective; its greatest asset will be the very cold air aloft associated with it. Storms such as these sometimes “fizzle” south of Point Conception, and it’s possible that happens this week. Still, this will likely be the most significant precipitation event across most of the state over the past 6-7 weeks.

Joe Bastardi at Weather Bell is predicting this storm will be like March of 1962 on the East Coast. In Nevada City, in March 1962 the snowfall total was 6.5 inches.

The Local TV is over hyping this storm. As a Caltrans Transportation Engineer once said, “Local TV forecasters are known for their ability to turn a few random snowflakes into a raging blizzard, and the next time forecast a few raindrops when it is a real blizzard.”

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About Russ Steele

Freelance writer and climate change blogger. Russ spent twenty years in the Air Force as a navigator specializing in electronics warfare and digital systems. After his service he was employed for sixteen years as concept developer for TRW, an aerospace and automotive company, and then was CEO of a non-profit Internet provider for 18 months. Russ's articles have appeared in Comstock's Business, Capitol Journal, Trailer Life, Monitoring Times, and Idaho Magazine.
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One Response to Much-needed Sierra Nevada snowfall on the way! But a Miracle March? Not so fast.

  1. gjrebane says:

    All of that prognostication is testimony to the quality and verity of their weather models; and if you think those are bad, you ain’t seen nothing yet when you start looking at how their general circulation models, those used to predict preventable man-made global warming, perform.

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