Wet or Dry California Winter?

The California Weather Blog has some thoughts.

Summing it up: what does all this mean for California?

The NMME ensemble is suggesting modest El Nino conditions this winter in the tropical Pacific Ocean. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com)
In short: ENSO certainly isn’t everything when it comes to California precipitation, but on the other hand particularly strong El Niño and La Niña events are quite likely to be consequential. Current seasonal projections for 2019 suggest a high likelihood of a weak to moderate El Niño event. In keeping with the above discussion, that unfortunately doesn’t offer much information regarding whether California is likely to experience a wet or dry winter (and this is largely reflected in seasonal precipitation forecasts, which are essentially suggesting equal odds of a wet or dry winter). It is worth noting that relatively warm conditions are quite likely to occur this winter throughout much of the American West; the global models appear to be in pretty good agreement on this front. These days, though, that’s not an especially surprising forecast: the world is a warmer place than it was when today’s “climate normals” were defined, and the odds are increasingly favoring warmer winters as the years go by.

While the claim it is getting warmer the maximum temperatures are declining not increasing. See this link for the decline in max temperatures.

 

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About Russ Steele

Freelance writer and climate change blogger. Russ spent twenty years in the Air Force as a navigator specializing in electronics warfare and digital systems. After his service he was employed for sixteen years as concept developer for TRW, an aerospace and automotive company, and then was CEO of a non-profit Internet provider for 18 months. Russ's articles have appeared in Comstock's Business, Capitol Journal, Trailer Life, Monitoring Times, and Idaho Magazine.
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2 Responses to Wet or Dry California Winter?

  1. George Rebane says:

    For the student of probability, a flat distribution across all covered contingencies – e.g. a 50-50 chance of this or that – is the formal, quantitative, and computable (in the Bayesian sense) representation of total ignorance about the matter. Hence the above discussion of the wetness of the coming California winter clearly demonstrates that the involved agencies don’t have a clue. The immediate follow-on that begs to be asked is, what other matters on weather and climate are they equally informed, while pretending to be otherwise?

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